Autor
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Tema: ¿DANA, Borrasca fría o perturbación tropical?: hoy 9 oct. a las 12 UTC (Leído 2515 veces)
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Gale
El capitán trueno
Cumulonimbus Capillatus
 Desconectado
Género: 
Mensajes: 9757
¿Realidad o ficción?
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Contra todo lo pronosticado, no sólo NO se ha disipado, sino que incluso ha conseguido reforzarse y bajar su presión mínima central a 998 y entrar en la Península sin ser absorbido por el frente. Creo que ningún meteorólogo sabía a ciencia cierta cómo iba a evolucionar VINCE, y quizá es lo que más me está entusiasmando, la Naturaleza indomable e imprevisible por mucha tecnología de que dispongamos... Después de esto, la Meteo aún me gusta más, y yo pensaba que era imposible que me gustase más de lo que me gustaba 
Captura del radar de portugal en donde se ve claramente la estructura de VINCE y, además, la discussión del National Hurricane Center del NOAA, en donde parece que flipan igual que nosotros con este sorpresivo sistema tropical.
000
WTNT43 KNHC 110227
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2005
WELL... THE LONG AND STRANGE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON CONTINUES AS
TROPICAL STORM VINCE BEARS DOWN ON THE SOUTHERN IBERIAN PENINSULA
AND NORTHWESTERN MOROCCO. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE COME DOWN
CONSIDERABLY AND WERE A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT AT 00Z FROM ALL THREE
AGENCIES. HOWEVER... A SMALL BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH TOPS
TO -50C HAS REDEVELOPED SINCE THEN ABOUT 50 NMI NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ALSO... A LATE ARRIVING 10/2100Z
OBSERVATION FROM SHIP V2ON3 LOCATED ABOUT 90 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER INDICATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 41 KT. QUALITY-CONTROL CHECKS
BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER INDICATE THE WIND AND PRESSURE DATA
WERE VIABLE... SO THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT AS IT
WAS 18Z SINCE THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE CLOUD
PATTERN NOTED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THAT TIME. THE
34-KT AND 12-FT SEAS RADII WERE INCREASED BASED ON THE REPORT FROM
SHIP V20N3 AND OTHER NEARBY SHIPS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/20. VINCE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR VINCE TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST
TO NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN
PORTUGAL AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN SPAIN BETWEEN 06-12Z. AFTER
MOVING INLAND... VINCE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER INTERIOR SPAIN. HOWEVER... WINDS MAY STILL BE
NEAR TROPICAL STORM-FORCE IN 12-HOURS IN THE STRAIT OF GILBRATAR
DUE TO THE STRONG FUNNELING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE... WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE IN THAT AREA WITH
EASTWARD-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS... EVEN IF VINCE IS AN
EXTREMELY RARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS PART OF THE WORLD.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0300Z 36.4N 9.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 37.9N 6.1W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
24HR VT 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND OVER SPAIN
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Roberto
El lagartijero
Cumulonimbus Calvus
Desconectado
Género:
Mensajes: 3146
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Se ha reforzado...
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Bigstorm
El caçador de bolets
Cumulonimbus Incus
Desconectado
Género:
Mensajes: 6502
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realmente espectacular lo del Vince..... 
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Gale
El capitán trueno
Cumulonimbus Capillatus
Desconectado
Género:
Mensajes: 9757
¿Realidad o ficción?
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Pues si llega a causar destrozos, Paco Montesdeoca que salió hablando ayer por la mañana en los desayundos de la primera, lo linchan... No se puede hablar tan alegremente de un sistema tropical, que esto aquí no lo conocemos y no sabemos qué puede hacer... 
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Lo castellonero
de Castellón
Cumulus Congestus
Desconectado
Género:
Mensajes: 1185
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lo jodido es que yo hoy a las 7,00 de la mañana, en canal nou decian que habia tocado tierra en portugal por la zona de lisboa, y que a las once se esperaba que estuviera sobre galicia, si es que canal nou peazo televisión 
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Lo castellonero
de Castellón
Cumulus Congestus
Desconectado
Género:
Mensajes: 1185
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ha sido impresionante, yo me he quedado flipando, pero que se puede esperar de una televisión que programaba tombola
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Gale
El capitán trueno
Cumulonimbus Capillatus
Desconectado
Género:
Mensajes: 9757
¿Realidad o ficción?
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Ojo a esta discusión del National Hurricane Center del NOAA:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/110829.shtml
000
WTNT43 KNHC 110829
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2005
VINCE'S DATA T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 06Z WERE NON-EXISTENT...
WITH JUST A VERY SMALL AREA OF COLD CONVECTION REMAINING TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER. NEITHER OF TWO SCATTEROMETER PASSES...ONE OVER
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AT 18Z AND ONE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AT
00Z...SHOWED ANY WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND INDEED THE
SECOND PASS CALLS INTO QUESTION THE EARLIER 40 KT SHIP REPORT. A
QUIKSCAT PASS AT 06Z SHOWED SOME RAIN-FLAGGED 35-40 KT VECTORS...
BUT CLOUD MOTIONS AND COASTAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE
QUIKSCAT VECTORS ARE CONTAMINATED. VINCE IS THEREFORE DOWNGRADED
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH THIS ADVISORY. WITH NO DATA T
NUMBERS...CONTINUING VINCE'S STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE ANY
LONGER IS UNWARRANTED. AS THE SHORT HAPPY LIFE OF VINCE IS NOW
OVER...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE REMNANTS OF VINCE
SHOULD CONTINUE ON A TRACK NEAR 065/20 UNTIL DISSPATION OR
ABSORPTION DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
THE HISTORICAL RECORD SHOWS NO TROPICAL CYCLONE EVER MAKING LANDFALL
ON THE IBERIAN PENINSULA. BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS FROM FARO
PORTUGAL...THE CENTER PASSED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
PORTUGAL...BEFORE BECOMING THE FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN SPAIN.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0900Z 37.2N 7.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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radarportugal.jpg
